Early Edge

One of the most of important pieces of successful sports betting is taking advantage of what I call the early edge. Getting the early edge means to place a bet on the opening line before more bets come in and change the line. For example, Vegas sets the opening line for Patriots vs Dolphins at Patriots -3.5. If you and whatever system you like to use suggests that this a favorable line for the Patriots, because you think they should be favored by 6.5 or more, then you bet it at 3.5. Now after you and others get on this trend, Vegas will move the line toward the Patriots and the line will become less and less favorable. By gameday, this line may be Patriots -6 and you will have missed out on the early edge.

Here are some of my early picks this week in College Football as well as the NFL

Temple +26.5

Oklahoma just had a big win in a hard fought game against Michigan. This is a trap game for the Sooners before playing Auburn next week. Temple has throttled their two early opponents this season. They have been very efficient in the pass and run game offensively. The Owls aren't built to beat this OU team, but they can hold their own. I think 26.5 is too many. I like Temple all the way down to +23.5.

New Mexico State +9.5

Louisiana Tech just played a tough game against LSU and kept it closer than most expected. This opening line reflects that and should not be this big. The Aggies of New Mexico State are a tough team and has won the last two matchups against the Bulldogs. I like the Aggies down to +7.5.

Georgia Tech +7.5

Clemson has looked rough two weeks in a row while GT has looked very good. This is Brent Key's third season as a head coach. This is a good coaching staff for the Yellow Jackets. Key was an offensive line coach for three seasons including the 2017 National Championship under Nick Saban. Buster Faulkner is the OC and he was the QB coach at Georgia for two National Championships under Kirby Smart. Blake Gideon, the DC, has worked under Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian in recent years. This staff has lots of quality experience and has started 2-0. They host the Tigers and should be not be getting over a touchdown. I am on the Yellow Jackets down to +6.5.

Browns +12.5

I know, this team is supposed to be awful and everyone will think I am overreacting to their close game with the Bengals. That isn't the case though. First, 12.5 is too much in almost any NFL matchup. That is CRAZY number. Second, the Browns have a very tough defense. The Browns can present problems for any offense. Also, with Flacco at the helm, this team will play very sound and move the ball. Flacco's two interceptions in week one were off his receivers' hands in floating in the air for the defenders. Neither pick was a bad throw or bad decision. The Ravens are definitely very good, but this is too many points and will almost certainly move toward the Browns. I will have the Browns down to +9.5.

Cowboys -4.5

I am not usually a fan of divisional games, but this one is too low. The Cowboys played a great game on Opening Night and the Giants looked pitiful on Sunday. This is a big game for the Cowboys at home. I like the Cowboys on anything less than a touchdown.

Buccaneers +1.5

This Tampa team is tough and doesn't mind playing on the road. The Bucs last year were 5-3 on the road with two overtime losses and a 2pt regulation loss to the Cowboys. This team will play anyone anywhere and keep it close. I like the Bucs to win outright and would have the Buce all the way to -0.5.