CFB PLAYOFF PICTURE Week 8

The 2025 College Football Playoff is a little different than years past. This season 5 conference champions receive automatic bids. There will be 7 more at-large bids. The 12 teams will all be seeded based on the committee rankings and the top 4 will receive first round byes. After Week 6, here is my CFB Playoff Picture.

The College Football Playoff isn't that complicated these days. Lots love to make it complicated but the truth is this, the Big Ten will get 3, the SEC will get 3, the ACC will get 1, and the Big 12 will get 1. That's 8 of the 12 spots. The last spot will be the highest ranked non-power conference champ which will likely be the American or the Mountain West. So there really are only 3 spots left for argument.

TOP 3 BIG TEN: OHIO STATE, INDIANA, OREGON

Ohio State seems primed to go 13-0 with a Big Ten championship. IU should go 12-1 only losing to Ohio State in the conference title. Oregon has just bought themselves the luxury of not playing in the title. This is a big deal for Oregon as the comittee often weighs recent losses heavier than earlier ones. An 11-1 Oregon on a 6-game win streak will likely be seeded ahead of a 2 loss SEC team with a recen loss. Quality wins will come into play here though and Oregon would only have PSU, USC, and Wash (if those three are even quality wins at the end of the year).

TOP 3 SEC: GEORGIA, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI

These SEC teams have so many more quality games than the other conferences that it gets difficult to assume a team will win the remainder or even most. I do have Georgia winning the remainder though including a rematch in the title against Alabama. That would have Georgia at 12-1 and Alabama at 11-2. Alabama's win @ Georgia would be canceled out by there title game loss, but they would have wins against Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, and Auburn. That could be enough to jump Oregon for the 5 spot. I think Texas A&M and Mississippi could each finish at 11-1 though unlikely with the schedules they have, especially A&M. Mississippi going 11-1 with wins against LSU and Oklahoma and only losing to Georgia would have them just behind Alabama and Oregon.

TOP ACC: MIAMI

Miami looks to have an easy slate to 13-0 unless Georgia Tech is able to bounce back from a Georgia loss and knock off Miami in the conference title game. Miami should go 13-0 and Georgia Tech will likely be 11-2.

TOP BIG 12: TEXAS TECH

I think the Big 12 champ could very well have 2 losses. So I only have one Big 12 team in the playoff and Texas Tech right now seems the strongest.

BEST NON-POWER CONFERENCE: SOUTH FLORIDA

South Florida, Memphis, and Boise State seem to be the three fighting for that 12th spot. South Florida has by far the best schedule, but it may not help them after that ugly loss at Miami. The Bulls did already beat Boise though so if they can win the American over Memphis, they should have the last playoff spot.

THE REAL "AT LARGE" ARGUMENT: NOTRE DAME, TEXAS A&M, TEXAS

Notre Dame had two tough losses to start the year, but those losses could very likely be against 2 top ten teams. If ND wins 10 in a row and looks good doing so, they will be one of the hottest teams in the country and hard not to have as a top 8 team.

Texas A&M should be the fourth SEC team but they have three very tough road games coming (@LSU, @Missouri, and @Texas). It will be a tough road but if they can win two of those they could be 11-1 and would be an easy pick for the 9 seed. They would possibly even jump Mississippi with more quality wins.

LSU and Texas are battling for that last spot. LSU lost at Mississippi but won at Clemson. I have them losing at home against Texas A&M and at Alabama as well. They would be 9-3 with those three losses and wins at Clemson, at Vanderbilt, and at Oklahoma. Texas lost at OSU and at Florida. I have them losing at Georgia too, but beating Vanderbilt and Texas A&M both at home. This would be an incredibly tough decision to make for the committee. They would love for a Big Ten team like Washington, USC, Nebraska, or Michigan to go 10-2 and help make this decision for them.

BEST OF THE REST:

LSU - The Tigers could very well get in at 9-3 but would definitely be in at 10-2. They need to beat Texas A&M at home or win in Tuscaloosa to lock themselves into the playoff.

Tennessee - The Vols did the no-no by losing at home, but it was a an OT loss against the Georgia Bulldogs. They played a rough game at Mississippi State last week which won't look great to the committee either. They need to look great the rest of the year and it won't be easy with games at Alabama, at Kentucky, Oklahoma, at Florida, and Vanderbilt. I don't see UT making it through that schedule with less than 3 losses.

Oklahoma - The Sooners have a ridiculous schedule and already dropped one in ugly fashion at home to Texas. They still have games at South Carolina, home vs. Mississippi, at Tennessee, at Alabama, home vs. Missouri, and home vs. LSU.

USC - That was a good win against Michigan, but they still have three tough road games against, Notre Dame, Nebraska, adn Oregon. They also play Iowa at home. USC has a chance for some quality wins, but they don't seem good enough to get them right now.

Washington - The Huskies don't have much of an opportunity for quality wins except against Oregon. I don't see the Huskies getting in, even at 10-2, unless they beat Oregon.